Historian who predicted nine of the last 11 US presidents claims four reasons led to Republicans midterm loss

A political historian who correctly predicted a bruising midterm defeat for the Republicans has identified four key reasons for their huge loss.

Before the 2026 midterms, Allan Lichtman, who has predicted nine of the 11 last US presidents, predicted that the previous scandals could harm Texas' Ken Paxton. Once again, he was correct, with one of the biggest surprises of the elections being James Talarico's victory, making him the first Democrat to win a US Senate seat in Texas since 1988.

Addressing the huge loss across the country, Trump said it was down to the fact he 'wasn't on the ballot.' However, Lichtman believes it was much more than that.

Speaking to UNILAD, Lichtman, author of the new book Great American Presidents, says: "Four strikes stood against the party in power this year, an unprecedented combination in modern midterm history, which I predicted in advance of the election based on historical patterns and granular, contemporary information."

The Republicans suffered a huge loss at the 2026 midterms (Photo by Finn Gomez/Getty Images)

According to the historian, these include:

1. The war in Iran
2. The economy, above all the cost of everyday life.
3. Corruption and the health of the democracy.
4. The president's deep unpopularity, which Lichtman claimed was 'simply the sum of the other three.'

"Exit polls put [Trump's] approval at 38 percent, lower than George W. Bush's in 2006, when his party also lost both chambers. Americans do not dislike a president in the abstract. They dislike what he has done," the historian further explains.

"Republican candidates learned the truth of one of Lichtman’s laws of American politics: You cannot run away from your own party's president," he continues.

However, Lichtman tells Americans that they should not 'expect any ideological shift on the part of Republicans.'

"In the House and Senate, Republicans have given in to the president, not primarily because they fear him, but because they agree with him," he claims. "The new Senate may even be more conservative than before, with the loss of Susan Collins in Maine and Thom Tillis in North Carolina, who did not run for reelection."

Allan Lichtman says the midterms are a 'major victory for Ukraine' (Photo by PEDRO UGARTE/AFP via Getty Images)

He also stresses that Trump still has significant presidential powers, something the White House isn't letting the people of America forget.

Taking to its X account on November 3, The White House posted: "PSA: TRUMP IS STILL YOUR PRESIDENT."

Although there has been discussion about whether the Democrats will seek to impeach Trump, the historian argues that the party should focus investigating issues such as the war in Iran, the tariff wars, the corruption and grift, the Epstein files, and the threat to democracy.

"Conviction is almost impossible in the Senate and Trump will trumpet the failure to convict as a vindication of this presidency," the historian explains.

As well as the Democrats, Lichtman tells us that the result is also a victory for Ukraine, as he says the country will have more support in both the US House and Senate.