Historian who predicted nine of the last 11 US presidential winners shares final verdict on midterms
A political historian who has predicted nine of 11 of the last US presidents has given his verdict on the upcoming midterms, and it's not good news for Donald Trump.
Allan Lichtman has shared his predictions for the US elections, which are being viewed by many as a referendum on Trump's second term in the White House.
And Lichtman has said he thinks that the Republican Party is in for a bruising midterms, saying that the Democrats have a more than 90 percent chance of winning the House of Representatives, and a strong chance of taking the Senate as well, with there even being a chance of Trump being impeached again if he loses badly.
Speaking to UK newspaper The Times, he explained that the Democrats do not have to make up much ground in the House as the Republicans only have a small majority.
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"Democrats need so few seats to take the majority. I give it over a 90% chance," he said.
While there is a bigger hill for the Democrats to climb in the Senate, Lichtman still thinks it's more likely than not that they will also take a majority there, giving them a 67 percent chance.
Even then though, he predicted a razor thin Democratic majority in the Senate, giving his most likely outcome as 51-49 in favour of the Democrats, meaning they will need to flip four seats to overturn the current layout of 53-47 to the Republicans.
As for where those four seats could be, Lichtman has put Texas, Ohio, Maine, and North Carolina as the most likely ones to turn.
He has also predicted a Democratic hold in Michigan, which has proven a controversial election for the party after former Democratic candidate Haley Stevens shocked the party by endorsing Republican candidate Mike Rogers over Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, who she lost to in the Democratic primary.
The controversy has been seen by some as a bubbling up of conflict within the Democratic party between its more centrist factions and a growing left wing voice.
But there are other states that Lichtman believes could be up for grabs, saying that Alaska could flip to the Democrats' Mary Peltola, and the Democrats even mounting challenges in Republican strongholds.
"It’s amazing that Democrats are competitive in South Carolina, which Trump won by 18 points," he said.
"Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since the Great Depression in 1932 and yet that’s a neck-and-neck race, as is Iowa."
But what does he think is the most significant factor behind the Democratic challenge?
"Usually Republicans turn out at a higher rate but this time it looks like the Democratic enthusiasm is higher," he said.
As for Trump himself, Lichtman pointed out his historically low approval ratings and highlighted that these spell bad news for the president in the midterms, saying that this 'not a prediction', but a reflection of previous elections where approval ratings have been low.
"When the approval rating for a president is as low as Trump’s, on average The White House party loses 40 House and six Senate seats," he explained.
"It’s not a prediction, that’s just showing how heavily the winds are blowing against Republicans."
But only time will tell just how accurate Lichtman's predictions will be for the midterms.
Topics: US News, Donald Trump, Politics, Election
Kit Roberts
