Powerful Super El Niño could have devastating effects on major US city

New York City just had its wettest August in five years, and meteorologists say that soggy stretch could be an early preview of a much bigger weather story heading into winter.

A powerful El Niño is currently developing in the Pacific, and forecasters now put the odds at 70% that it strengthens into a so-called 'Super El Niño', an unusually intense version of the naturally occurring phenomenon that can scramble jet streams and seasonal patterns across the globe.

According to the New York Post, the shift could leave New Yorkers trading snowy winters for a wetter, milder season instead.

AccuWeather senior meteorologist Carl Erickson told the outlet that the city likely won't feel the full effects until later in the year.

'Warmth may linger through September,' he said, with 'brief shots of cooler air' expected to arrive in October.

(Photo by Selcuk Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Erickson said El Niño's influence is expected to grow 'by late fall and winter,' though it's still too early to say exactly how snowfall will shake out.

"Some snow is possible by late October or November if a storm happens to coincide with enough cold air. But it is too early to predict any specific event," he explained.

Once winter fully arrives, the picture gets murkier. Some forecasts suggest a season that stays mild overall but turns wetter, with El Niño historically capable of pushing extra precipitation toward the Atlantic Coast.

Data cited by CNN Weather backs that up, putting New York's odds of above-average precipitation between December and February at 50–60%, while the chances of above-average temperatures over the same stretch sit at 40–50%.

That combination could mean more rain and sleet than the classic snow-covered New York winter many residents expect.

New York City has recorded more than eight inches of rain so far in August, the city's wettest August in five years. (Photo by Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)

How does El Niño typically affect the rest of the US?

El Niño events themselves aren't rare, they crop up every few years whenever ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific climb above normal, triggering knock-on effects worldwide.

In a typical US pattern, the Southeast tends to see wetter, stormier and colder winters, large parts of the Midwest turn drier, and northern states often run warmer than usual.

The East Coast, meanwhile, tends to be the wild card, frequently seeing an uptick in rain and coastal storms tracking up from the South, according to the American Geosciences Institute.

This year's setup is already living up to that unpredictability. New York City has recorded more than eight inches of rain so far in August, making it the city's wettest August in five years. The last time rainfall came close to those levels was in 2021, when the city saw more than ten inches over the same month.

Whether this winter brings a full-blown Super El Niño or a more moderate version, forecasters say the coming months are likely to look very different from the snow-heavy winters some New Yorkers are used to — with rain, rather than snow, potentially taking centre stage.