Five parts of the US that could be hit hardest by a Super El Niño as odds increase
The odds of a potential super El Niño are increasing, with experts saying it could arrive as early as mid-late 2026 - and experts have predicted which areas will be hit hardest.
Before we get into that - what exactly is an El Niño? El Niño is the name given to the climate phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. This can then cause changes in wind and weather patterns across the globe, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather conditions in a number of regions.
A Super El Niño, however, is not a scientific term, but is informally used when speaking about an El Niño in which water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator are 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above average, the NOAA states.
At this moment in time, NOAA says there’s over an 80% chance of an El Niño emerging in July 2026. They typically last for 12 to 18 months, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration saying there is an extremely high chance of it continuing in winter, from December through February.
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Although temperatures are predicted to rise across the globe, TODAY weatherman Al Roker and NBC News senior meteorologist and producer Kathryn Prociv spoke to the outlet, revealing what areas of the US could be hit hardest.
Hawaii and The West Coast
Due to the effects of past El Niño’s, it’s the West Coast that has been hit the hardest, the experts say.
“It usually means a more active Pacific hurricane season,” Prociv told the outlet. “Alarm bells are going off already for Hawaii.”
In 2023, during the last El El Niño, Hurricane Hillary hit parts of Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Utah and Southern California.
For those on the East Coast - Rocker also said it “looks like it means a below-average hurricane season.” However, he warns: “You only need one to be catastrophic.”
The South
Those in the Southern States may need to prepare to see more storms, the experts say - if patterns from previous El Niño’s are anything to go by.
“The subtropical jet stream is like a storm highway, and (El Niño) really energizes it and gets it going,” Provic told the outlet.
Florida and the Gulf Coast
Unfortunately, it may also be bad news for those in Florida, and they may want to make indoor plans, as Roker believes the weather will be ‘looking really wet into fall and winter’.
The Whole Country
Yes, the whole country is likely to be affected by hotter temperatures, with summer temperatures predicted to rise across the globe, whether related to El Niño or not.
Elsewhere, experts have warned that the extreme weather could impact food production, flooding and coral reefs, and fires, that could pose several health risks.
Rocker adds that the effects will be felt across the country at different times, and says if ‘it doesn’t happen,’ the climate unit will be just as happy as everybody else’. Although, he said they have confidence we will be seeing at least some impact of the conditions.
Topics: Climate Change, Weather, Environment
Kiesha Dosanjh