Mathematician who correctly predicted World Cup winner three times names their 2026 pick
Topics: Sport, Netherlands
Kiesha Dosanjh
Featured Image Credit: Mattia Ozbot/Getty Images
Topics: Sport, Netherlands
We all have our predictions on who's going to win the World Cup this year, but one man's prediction seems to hold more credibility than others, as he's been right three times before.
German mathematician Joachim Klement has successfully guessed the last three World Cup winners - could he be onto a fourth?
He knew his home team Germany would lift the cup in 2014 - but went against them in 2018, and he was right to.
In 2018, he correctly predicted France would take home the Cup, and then Argentina four years ago.
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But who are his bets on this year? Despite the tournament being held across the United States, Canada and Mexico, unfortunately it's none of them.
In fact, it's the Netherlands, who have never won before, and aren't amongst the favorites to win.
But how does he predict so accurately? Well he uses an economic model.
"It uses economic variables to try to predict which teams are likely to win," he told CBS.
The model counts on four factors, population and climate of the country and whether 'teams are wealthy enough to have the infrastructure to develop talent,' he said.
He says those with a higher population have a 'bigger talent pool,' and with climate, it's important players can adapt and play soccer 'all year round'. As we know, climates differ around the world, and with the high temperatures this year, players have also been given hydration breaks.
The fourth, is their current FIFA World rankings, so he can get a general idea where they are right now.
He notes that the 'usual suspects' including 'soccer powerhouses' Brazil, Argentina, Germany, France and Spain are always 'near the top.'
Speaking on his Netherlands prediction, he told the outlet: "Arguably, they've never won the World Cup so far, but for being a small country, they have been in three World Cup finals already."
Although he says the team don't have any 'huge stars' like Messi - he said they have 'no weak spot' and a 'great defence'.
But will he be right for a fourth time? Only time will tell...
He's not the only one to make a prediction however, as scientists have also weighed in on their predictions.
They, however, have a different outcome.
According to experts from the University of Innsbruck, each participating soccer team has a different level of chance of winning to trophy, and for them, it was Spain who came out on top.
Researchers looked at the teams and their past matches, the odds bookmakers have been handing out, as well as market value for the teams and player ratings.
Spain came out with a 14.5 per cent chance of winning the tournament overall, with England and France coming in at joint second with 12.4 per cent chance.
We'll just have to wait and see!