AI's 2026 World Cup prediction differs from expert who got last three winners right

The 2026 World Cup is well underway, and as ever, everyone has their own theory on who's going to lift the trophy come July.

Predictions are flying in from all angles, from betting markets to AI models, but one man's track record stands out above the rest.

German mathematician Joachim Klement has correctly called the last three World Cup winners in a row, picking Germany in 2014, France in 2018, and Argentina in 2022.

Given that record, you'd think his pick for this year would carry serious weight.

The 2026 World Cup is well underway, and as ever, everyone has their own theory on who's going to lift the trophy come July. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

But despite the tournament being hosted across the United States, Canada and Mexico, Klement's prediction has nothing to do with the host nations at all.

His pick is the Netherlands, a team that has never won the World Cup and isn't even among the bookmakers' favorites.

Klement uses an economic model rather than form or star power to make his calls. "It uses economic variables to try to predict which teams are likely to win," he told CBS.

The model is built around four key factors: a country's population, its climate, whether it has the wealth and infrastructure to develop talent, and its current FIFA world ranking.

A bigger population means a bigger talent pool, while a favorable climate allows players to train and play year-round. It's why he says "usual suspects" like Brazil, Argentina, Germany, France and Spain tend to stay near the top of his model.

The mathematician believes the Netherlands will lift the trophy this year (Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images)

As for the Netherlands specifically, Klement pointed out that despite never winning the tournament, the small nation has already reached three World Cup finals. He believes the current squad lacks a standout superstar on the level of Lionel Messi, but makes up for it with a strong, well-organized defense and no obvious weak spot.

Who does ChatGPT think will win the World Cup?

When asked for its own prediction, ChatGPT landed on a far more conventional pick, Spain. The AI pointed to current betting markets and statistical models, which generally place Spain, France and Argentina as the top three contenders, with England and Brazil close behind.

It also referenced Goldman Sachs' tournament simulations, which currently list Spain as the slight favorite.

ChatGPT's full predicted final saw Spain beating France, with Argentina reaching at least the semifinals. Its overall ranking of favorites ran Spain, France, Argentina, England, Brazil, Portugal and Germany, while acknowledging that knockout football can be derailed by a single bad result, injury or penalty shootout.

ChatGPT has Spain down as favourites to lift the cup this year (Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)

A separate study from the University of Innsbruck has sided with the AI's pick rather than the mathematician's. Researchers analyzed each team's past results, bookmaker odds, market value and player ratings to calculate a percentage chance of winning the tournament outright.

Spain came out on top with a 14.5 percent chance of lifting the trophy, with England and France tied for second on 12.4 percent each.

With the final not taking place until July 19, there's still plenty of football left to prove any of these predictions right, or spectacularly wrong.