America's top election guru issues major update on how he sees midterms unfolding

Around 40 million Americans have already voted in the 2026 midterm elections, and a new forecast suggests Democrats could be heading towards a shift in power in Washington.

According to The Independent, election analyst Nate Silver now gives Democrats a 79 percent chance of winning control of the Senate, up from 75 percent previously, days before voters head to the polls on November 3rd.

Silver's outlook also makes Democrats strong favorites to take the House, meaning President Donald Trump could face a Congress controlled by the opposing party during the final two years of his term.

The change follows strong polling for Democrats in several Senate contests.

Writing on X, Silver said: "Very strong polls for Democrats in individual Senate races over the past couple of days."

He acknowledged polls could still be wrong, but argued the evidence had moved beyond describing the Senate contest as too close to call.

Silver discussed the revised estimate on the YouTube show The Argument, saying: "It's 79 in the Senate. That's a little bit higher than prediction markets, but I feel decent about that actually."

What are Nate Silver's latest 2026 midterm predictions?

The 79 percent figure is a probability, not a guarantee. In a separate post on his Substack, Silver warned that Democratic polling leads in four states could still disappear.

Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Maine were the battlegrounds he singled out, saying the party's advantages there were "all just a normal-sized polling error away from flipping."

Democrats cannot treat the forecast as a result already decided.

A shift in polling accuracy could still change the outcome in states crucial to control of the chamber.

The House picture is also attracting attention. CNN data analyst Harry Enten said Wednesday that Democrats were projected to win 223 seats, above the 218 needed for a majority.

"Look at it now, up like a rocket. We're now talking 223 seats," Enten said.

Why could the 2026 midterms change Trump's final years in office?

The elections are widely being viewed as a verdict on Trump's administration after almost two years in power. His approval ratings have fallen amid the war in Iran and concerns about the cost of living.

Republicans are reportedly preparing for a difficult election night.

Politico quoted one senior Republican strategist warning: "Once the dominoes start falling it becomes hard to stop them."

The outlet reported Republicans are in a worse position than expected earlier in the year.

One senior party figure was quoted as saying: "Any Democrats telling you they aren't winning the Senate [besides] a couple of seats are sandbagging expectations."

If Democrats win both chambers, they could obstruct Trump's legislative agenda and pursue investigations through congressional committees. The shift would leave the president with less room to advance his priorities during the second half of his term.

Trump has dismissed unfavorable polling as 'fake' on Truth Social.

With millions of ballots already cast, Silver's forecast adds to the pressure on Republicans fighting to retain their congressional majorities.