Average tax refund Americans can expect after Trump Administration's $1,000 claim

Donald Trump has promised that this tax season will be the 'largest tax refund season of all time', but how much can US residents actually expect?

An announcement back on January 26 saw the White House say that the average taxpayer in the US could get an additional $1,000 in a refund, or possibly more.

It went on to refer to data which had been supplied by investment bank Piper Sandler from back in October 2025.

Since then, there have even been multiple bills tabled which propose tax refunds for people who are hit most by Trump's tariff policies, which have already had a significant impact on the US economy as businesses pass costs on to consumers.

But while the January announcement promised a significant increase in the amount that taxpayers might see, what is the picture like further down the line?

The White House previously spoke about bigger tax refunds back in January (Xavier Lorenzo/Getty)

Well, according to a report from the IRS as of March 20 2026 the average amount that someone can be refunded in the US is around $3,571.

This is an increase from the previous year, however it is not as much of an increase as that $1,000 in January's announcement.

Instead, it is up by $350 from the previous figure of $3,221, according to a report from the IRS which was released back in March.

As for the average refund size, this went to a high point of $3,804 on February 20, an increase from $3,453.

Corey Husak is the director of tax policy at the Center for American Progress (CAP), which describes itself on its website as an 'independent nonpartisan policy institute'.

Husak said: “Americans were promised meaningful relief, but the numbers tell a very different story.

“Refund increases are modest, uneven, and heavily tilted toward the highest earners, while other Trump policies are driving costs higher for working families.”

Analysis from CAP suggests that higher earners will benefit more than lower earners (Natalia Lebedinskaia/Getty)

In a statement to CNBC, White House spokesperson Kush Desai said that it is 'premature to make any pronouncements about the average'.

Desai added: “What the data does show, however, is that millions of working class Americans who were meant to get tax relief - through no tax on overtime, tips, or Social Security - are taking advantage of President Trump’s historic tax cut legislation."

But how will it affect different people?

Analysis from CAP said that households with an income of less than $100,000 are anticipated to see increases of around $210, with only 48.8 percent, less than half, forecast to see more money on their return.

Meanwhile, the analysis indicates that households with an income of $200,000 or more could see larger increases of around $2,000.

The US is also seeing the cost of living rising, with the cost of things like groceries, medicine and healthcare, and housing rising.