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Scientists predict date humans will go extinct and claim it's 95% accurate
Home>News
Published 16:38 17 Jun 2026 GMT+1

Scientists predict date humans will go extinct and claim it's 95% accurate

The study takes into account everyone who has ever lived, and then comes up with a date Earth will perish

Britt Jones

Britt Jones

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Featured Image Credit: Getty stock image

Topics: Science

Britt Jones
Britt Jones

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The world might want to take note of the latest Doomsday Clock news, which is almost guaranteed to happen.

Long has the clock that predicts when humanity will become extinct, has been in the news – but this update is a little more chilling than the last.

Previously, the clock was updated to reflect modern times, such as the misuses of artificial intelligence (AI) and biological intelligence, along with ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as climate change.

This brought the clock to 89 seconds (1 minute and 29 seconds) to midnight, which is the closest it has ever been to the 12 o’clock hand.

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But after mathematicians used a controversial formula to predict humanity’s end, there’s been a new change to the end of times timeline.

The math predicts when humanity will end (Getty Stock Images)
The math predicts when humanity will end (Getty Stock Images)

Known as the 'doomsday argument,' it calculates roughly all 117 billion people that have ever lived, then assumes that people alive today hold a random place in humanity, which brings them to the assumption that 117 billion people who already lived represent just five per cent of all humans who will exist.

That leaves 95 per cent of people unaccounted for.

To then figure out how many people would be equated to the 95 perfect, they multiplied the five per cent figure by 20, as 100 (per cent) is 20 times larger than five per cent.

That’s 117 billion times 20, which brings the calculation to 2.34 trillion people that will exist before the end of humanity.

Now, according to the math experts, this would take around 17,100 years to complete, meaning that humanity will end when those births have been completed.

It believes there are still trillions of people left to live (Getty Stock Images)
It believes there are still trillions of people left to live (Getty Stock Images)

While you might think you can’t argue with the math – you can, because critics have.

This is because some say it doesn’t think about potential innovations like space travel and colonization, or new technologies that could extend our lives.

There’s also the fact that a May study has come out to predict that the global population could crash by 2064, which is much, much sooner than what the mathematicians think.

£The most provocative part of our paper explores hypothetical future scenarios,” the researchers from the University of Milan said. “We modelled what could happen if major environmental crises abruptly imposed severe carrying–capacity limits on Earth. Under a deliberately conservative worst–case assumption that Earth's sustainable carrying capacity suddenly dropped to around two billion people, our model predicts a rapid global population decline, with humanity potentially halving by around the year 2064.”

So, that’s something to look forward to.

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