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Topics: News, Technology, Artificial Intelligence
Amelia Jones
Topics: News, Technology, Artificial Intelligence
An artificial intelligence investor has warned that humanity may need to hit the breaks on AI development, claiming it's becoming 'God-like' and that it could cause 'catastrophe' for us in the not-so-distant future.
Ian Hogarth - who has invested in over 50 AI companies - made an ominous statement on how the constant pursuit of increasingly-smart machines could spell disaster in an essay for the Financial Times.
The AI investor and author claims that researchers are foggy on what's to come and have no real plan for a technology with that level of knowledge.
"They are running towards a finish line without an understanding of what lies on the other side," he warned.
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Hogarth shared what he'd recently been told by a machine-learning researcher that 'from now onwards' we are on the verge of artificial general intelligence (AGI) coming to the fore.
AGI has been defined as is an autonomous system that can learn to accomplish any intellectual task that human beings can perform and surpass human capabilities.
Hogarth, co-founder of Plural Platform, said that not everyone agrees that AGI is imminent but rather 'estimates range from a decade to half a century or more' for it to arrive.
However, he noted the tension between companies that are frantically trying to advance AI's capabilities and machine learning experts who fear the end point.
The AI investor also explained that he feared for his four-year-old son and what these massive advances in AI technology might mean for him.
He said: "I gradually shifted from shock to anger.
"It felt deeply wrong that consequential decisions potentially affecting every life on Earth could be made by a small group of private companies without democratic oversight."
When considering whether the people in the AGI race were planning to 'slow down' to ' let the rest of the world have a say' Hogarth admitted that it's morphed into a 'them' versus 'us' situation.
Having been a prolific investor in AI startups, he also confessed to feeling 'part of this community'.
Hogarth's descriptions of the potential power of AGI were terrifying as he declared: "A three-letter acronym doesn’t capture the enormity of what AGI would represent, so I will refer to it as what is: God-like AI."
Hogarth described it as 'a superintelligent computer that learns and develops autonomously, that understands its environment without the need for supervision and that can transform the world around it'.
But even with this knowledge and, despite the fact that it's still on the horizon, he warned that we have no idea of the challenges we'll face and the 'nature of the technology means it is exceptionally difficult to predict exactly when we will get there'.
"God-like AI could be a force beyond our control or understanding, and one that could usher in the obsolescence or destruction of the human race," the investor said.
Despite a career spent investing in and supporting the advancement of AI, Hogarth explained that what made him pause for thought was the fact that 'the contest between a few companies to create God-like AI has rapidly accelerated'.
He continued: "They do not yet know how to pursue their aim safely and have no oversight."
Hogarth still plans to invest in startups that pursue AI responsibly, but explained that the race shows no signs of slowing down.
"Unfortunately, I think the race will continue," he said.
"It will likely take a major misuse event - a catastrophe - to wake up the public and governments."