Man thinks he's worked out how Trump calculated tariff rates for each country and the method is unbelievable

A Twitter user has shared his theory on how Donald Trump calculated the rates for his 'Liberation Day' tariffs after the Office of the United States Trade Representative shared an explanation of its own.

Trump's long-anticipated 'Liberation Day' arrived yesterday (April 2), when the President of the United States announced new charges against dozens of countries across the globe as he seeks to boost the economy in the US.

"April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to 'Make America Wealthy Again,'" Trump said in a speech from the White House.

"For decades our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered from nations, near and far, from both friend and foe alike."

The president has established a baseline tariff of at least 10 percent on almost all goods coming into the country, while key trading partners such as China (54%), Vietnam (46%) and the European Union (20%) have been hit with customized tariffs.

The method used to calculate the tariffs largely remained a mystery on the run-up to Trump's announcement, but as he unveiled his plans the Office of the US Trade Representative shared a statement explaining that reciprocal tariffs had been calculated 'as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners'.

The formula presented by the office divides a country’s trade surplus with the US by its total exports according to data from the US Census Bureau for 2024. The resulting number is then divided by two, producing the 'discounted' rate presented by Trump.

Trump announced his tariffs at the White House Rose Garden (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Twitter user James Surowiecki, who previously wrote The Financial Page for The New Yorker, has shared his own thoughts on the tariffs, initially claiming: "It's also important to understand that the tariff rates that foreign countries are supposedly charging us are just made-up numbers. South Korea, with which we have a trade agreement, is not charging a 50% tariff on U.S. exports. Nor is the EU charging a 39% tariff."

After taking a closer look at the tariffs, Surowiecki then shared a methodology which he believes fits the tariffs, which he described as 'extraordinary nonsense'.

He explained: "Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.

"So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is."

Surowiecki described the tariffs as 'nonsense' (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Surowiecki went on to describe the whole situation as 'deceptive', before following up on his calculation with some additional context.

He wrote: "This tweet is correct, but it's actually worse than I thought: in calculating the tariff rate, Trump's people only used the trade deficit in goods. So even though we run a trade surplus in services with the world, those exports don't count as far as Trump is concerned."

Surowiecki's tweet has left other financial experts concerned, with Spencer Hakimian, Founder of Tolou Capital Management, writing: "You cannot be serious."

UNILAD has reached out to the White House for comment on Surowiecki's claims.