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Chilling 28-year-old theory claims America is heading towards its biggest crisis yet
Home>News>US News
Published 17:29 21 Jun 2026 GMT+1

Chilling 28-year-old theory claims America is heading towards its biggest crisis yet

'It could mean a lasting defeat from which our nation might never recover'

Mia Williams

Mia Williams

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Featured Image Credit: Getty stock image

Topics: US News, Life

Mia Williams
Mia Williams

Mia is an NCTJ-trained journalist at UNILAD with a BA (Hons) in Multimedia Journalism, reporting across breaking news, US politics, entertainment, health, lifestyle, and more. Before joining as a journalist in 2026, she freelanced across the LADbible Group titles for over three years. She is also a documentary producer, having created independent films, and worked as a researcher on series including Stacey Dooley Sleeps Over USA.

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A chilling prediction from a 1997 book suggests America is heading towards it's biggest 'crisis' yet, and the authors warn it could 'never recover'.

The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe argues that American history unfolds in recurring 80-year cycles, with each era ending in a period of major upheaval known as a 'crisis'.

And according to the book, there's one in the not too distant future.

The authors, who also coined the term 'Millennials', predicted that a crisis beginning in the mid-2000s would build towards a climax around 2020, before reaching a final resolution in 2026.

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And if we're looking back on the last few years, between a global pandemic, economic instability, and growing political division, the theory sounds pretty spot on.

But what comes next is not as reassuring as you might have hoped.

The pair warned that the outcome of the current crisis could fundamentally reshape America - and potentially threaten the country's future.

The authors warned that the crisis could fundamentally reshape America as we know it. (Getty Stock Images)
The authors warned that the crisis could fundamentally reshape America as we know it. (Getty Stock Images)

Strauss and Howe wrote: "If the crisis catalyst comes on schedule, around the year 2005, then the climax will be due around 2020, the resolution around 2026.

"What will America be like as it exits the Fourth Turning? History offers no guarantees."

Their prediction states that consequences of the current era could be severe, as they added: "It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence - and perhaps even our nation - might never recover."

While The Fourth Turning did not predict specifc events and tragedies such as 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, or the Covid-19 pandemic, supporters argue it successfully forecast the broader direction of the US.

Critics of the book suggest its predictions are too vague. (Getty Stock Images)
Critics of the book suggest its predictions are too vague. (Getty Stock Images)

However, critics of the book argue its predictions are broad enough that almost any major event can be interpreted as fitting the theory after the fact.

The authors argued that societies throughout history have collapsed under the pressure of numerous events, including war, disease, political instability, and economic catastrophe.

And they warned that Americans should not assume they will always be spared from 'debasement and total ruin.'

"As many Americans know from their own ancestral backgrounds, history provides numerous examples of societies that have been wiped off the map, ground into submission, or beaten so badly they revert to barbarism," they wrote in the book.

According to Strauss and Howe, the US is now nearing the end of a cycle that began after World War II.

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