Canadians spent over $3 billion less on travel to US in 2025 after Trump's '51st state' threat

Canadian travel across the U.S. border has experienced a sharp and sudden decline, as growing political friction and economic uncertainty under Donald Trump’s administration prompt millions of Canadians to rethink their vacation plans.

According to new travel and border cross data shared by The Guardian, land and air crossings by Canadian residents into the United States have dropped significantly compared to previous years.

The shift marks one of the most noticeable disruptions to cross-border tourism in recent history, outside of pandemic-era restrictions.

Industry analysts attribute the sudden dip to a mix of escalating trade rhetoric, newly proposed tariffs, and a broader cultural pushback against travelling south of the border given the current political climate.

“What we’re seeing is a clear shift in consumer behaviour,” explained a senior travel analyst. “Canadians who would normally cross the border for weekend shopping, road trips, or warm-weather vacations are actively choosing domestic alternatives or travelling overseas instead.”

Tourists from Canada have dropped in numbers over the past year (Andrej Ivanov/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Border Economies Feel the Pinch

The sudden drop in visitors is already sending shockwaves through northern U.S. border communities and major tourism markets.

State economies from Washington to Maine rely heavily on Canadian visitors to drive retail sales, hotel occupancy, and hospitality revenue.

Northern border towns—where local businesses often depend on Canadian weekend shoppers for up to 40% of their annual revenue—are reporting quieter streets, empty parking lots, and declining sales.

Key issues driving the downturn include:

• Tariff Concerns & Currency Shifts: Worries over trade policies and shifting exchange rates have made U.S. travel significantly more expensive for Canadian households.
• Political Disapproval: A growing "buy Canadian" sentiment, coupled with vocal frustration over U.S. policy stances, has led many to boycott U.S. travel on principle.
• Rise in Domestic Tourism: Canadian provincial tourism boards are capitalizing on the trend, reporting record surges in domestic hotel bookings and local road trips.

Even tourist hotspots like Florida could be under threat if visitor numbers don't improve (Getty Stock Images)

Long-Term Outlook for US Tourism

Tourism groups across the U.S. are urging officials to take steps to reassure international travelers, warning that prolonged declines in Canadian visits could cost the U.S. economy billions in lost revenue over the coming year.

Canadian visitors represent the single largest market for international tourism in the United States.

If the trend persists through the peak summer and upcoming winter snowbird seasons, major destinations in Florida, Arizona, and California could also face major economic shortfalls.

For now, border crossings remain unusually quiet—leaving U.S. business owners waiting nervously to see if cross-border relations cool down or worsen in the months ahead.