Former Russian Official Explains The Three False Beliefs Putin Held Before Invading Ukraine

A former Russian foreign minister has argued that President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was not based on irrational thinking, but 'wrong and immoral' miscalculations.

Andrei Kozyrev, who acted as Russia's foreign minister between 1991 and 1996, has given his two cents on why Putin chose to invade Ukraine in a thread on Twitter, in which he laid out three fundamentally false beliefs held by Putin that likely guided his decision.

'Most people, particularly in the West, view his decision to invade Ukraine as utterly irrational. I disagree. It’s horrific, but not irrational,' Kozyrev wrote.

'To understand why the invasion was rational for Putin, we have to step into his shoes.'

According to Kozyrev, the first key belief held by Putin was that Ukraine was 'not a real nation.'

He argued that Putin thinks that Ukraine should be a Russian 'satellite state,' and that he believed the country's move away from the Russian sphere of influence following its 2014 revolution was a result of western interference.

As a result, Kozyrev claims that Putin 'started to believe his own propagandists' who claimed Ukraine was being run by neo-Nazis, and felt he had no choice but to use force to bring the country back on side.

Secondly, Kozyrev argues that Putin had overestimated the abilities of Russian military, claiming that much of the budget for defence modernisation had been 'stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus.'

And as anyone who has seen pictures on Russian vehicles literally getting stuck in the mud can tell you, the Russian military has run into its fair share of problems since entering Ukraine, with some intelligence sources claiming their advances have stalled as a result of logistical issues.

Finally, Kozyrev believes that the West's response to Russia's invasion has been far more united than Putin could have imagined.

To understand why the invasion was rational for Putin, we have to step into his shoes. Three beliefs came together at the same time in his calculus:
1. Ukraine’s condition as a country
2. Russian military’s condition
3. The West’s geopolitical condition

— Andrei V Kozyrev (@andreivkozyrev) March 6, 2022

He said: 'The Russian ruling elite believed its own propaganda that Pres. Biden is mentally inept.

'They also thought the EU was weak because of how toothless their sanctions were in 2014.

'And then the US botched its withdrawal from Afghanistan, solidifying this narrative.

Kozyrev argued that Putin believed he'd get away with invading Ukraine as he had done with previous military action.

'He miscalculated on all three, but that doesn’t make him insane. Simply wrong and immoral,' Kozyrev concluded.

If you would like to donate to the Red Cross Emergency Appeal, which will help provide food, medicines and basic medical supplies, shelter and water to those in Ukraine, click here for more information