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Chance of devastating 'god of chaos' asteroid hitting Earth could be higher than scientists first thought

Home> Technology> Space

Published 14:10 4 Sep 2024 GMT+1

Chance of devastating 'god of chaos' asteroid hitting Earth could be higher than scientists first thought

A new study found there's a way that the asteroid might end up impacting Earth

Niamh Shackleton

Niamh Shackleton

The chances of a giant asteroid colliding with Earth in just five years time might be slightly higher than expected.

With NASA having an abyss of high tech ways to monitor what's going on in space, it was inevitable that they'd start tracking which asteroids could pose a threat to life as we know it.

One asteroid that's been on astronomers' radars for some time is 99942 Apophis - AKA the 'god of chaos'.

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This particular object is 340 meters wide, which is larger that two American football fields side-by-side.

With its size in mind, it probably comes as no surprise that if the 'god of chaos' asteroid struck Earth it would have pretty devastating consequences.

In fact, it's believed that the impact would be equivalent to 1,000 megatons of TNT.

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Earlier this year, a study shared that the asteroid is expected to pass by Earth in 2029, and will come within 40,000 kilometres of our planet.

While in regards to space this is quite close proximity, scientists at the time were confident that 'god of chaos' won't collide with Earth.

But this has since changed ever so slightly. Its current trajectory isn't set to crash into Earth, but an object as small as two-feet could change this.

The asteroid is scheduled to pass Earth in April 2029 (Getty Stock)
The asteroid is scheduled to pass Earth in April 2029 (Getty Stock)

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Canadian astronomer Paul Wiegert and co-author Benjamin Hyatt have looked into the odds of the asteroid colliding with another object which would send it hurtling our way in a new study - and their findings probably isn't the news you were hoping for.

Wiegert and Hyatt concluded that a relatively small impactor of around 0.6 meters (2 feet) could be enough to push the asteroid into one of the 2029 'keyhole' trajectories around Earth, IFL Science reports, which could lead to it colliding with our planet at a later date.

For 'god of chaos' to hit Earth in 2029, the object it collided with would have to be around 3.4 meters (11.2 feet) - an object slightly larger than a grand piano.

But the odds of this happening in 2029 are 'exceptionally low', you'll be pleased to know (around 2.7 percent, to be more precise).

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The odds of Earth being impacted by the object are 'exceptionally low' (Roberto Machado Noa/Getty)
The odds of Earth being impacted by the object are 'exceptionally low' (Roberto Machado Noa/Getty)

Wiegert wrote in the study: "Given that only 5 percent of such impulses are in the correct direction to generate an Earth impact, the overall probability of a small impact directing Apophis into a collision with the Earth is less than one in two billion."

In regards to a smaller object striking it and putting it on course for a later impact, the odds were calculated to be less than one in a million.

Phew.

Featured Image Credit: Getty Stock Image

Topics: Space, Science, Earth, NASA, News

Niamh Shackleton
Niamh Shackleton

Niamh Shackleton is an experienced journalist for UNILAD, specialising in topics including mental health and showbiz, as well as anything Henry Cavill and cat related. She has previously worked for OK! Magazine, Caters and Kennedy.

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@niamhshackleton

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