UK Could Hit Its Highest-Ever Temperature This Month

This summer is set to get hot, and we mean seriously hot.

The UK could have its hottest temperatures on record this year, as some computers are predicting figures could reach 40ºC.

The latest computer modelling results are forecasting the temperatures could be the highest ever seen in the UK for mid-July.

Simon Lee, research scientist at Colombia University who worked on the modelling for the forecast, told Sky News: "Extreme weather events and rising temperatures are due to human-induced global warming.

"Recent research indicates that towards the end of the century parts of the UK could see 40ºC every few years under a high emissions scenario."

However, the prediction has come from a single member of a forecasting system, which captures a range of possibilities. Predictions are more likely to occur if more than one member has the same forecast. For the UK to hit these temperatures, hot air would have to move up from Africa, through Spain and France, then into the UK. This would include development of a low-pressure system west of Iberia and its movement towards to UK.

Despite the computer prediction, meteorologists have been doubtful if it will happen. Sky's weather forecaster Kirsty McCabe said: "Nobody can recall 40ºC appearing in a major global forecast system for the UK. Especially when this forecast was also predicting temperatures over 39ºC over a huge area of southeast England.

"Given that the UK's previous hottest days have only seen a few places exceed 38ºC, this was unlike anything forecasters had ever seen before."

While 40ºC might bit deemed too high, temperatures are still expected to be above 20ºC in July and potentially across the rest of the summer for the UK. McCabe added: "All the factors have to align perfectly for the UK to attain 40ºC. While it is possible, it's extremely unlikely, even if the risk is the highest it's ever been.

"For example, for the weekend of 16/17 July 2022, most forecasts are in the low-to-mid 30s, and there are just as many forecasts showing maxima not much above 20ºC as there are showing 40ºC."

In order for the UK to hit the 40ºC temperature that computers have predicted, the weather system in the UK would need to pump the warmest air from Africa, through Spain and France, and then into the UK.

So while the jury is out on reaching 40ºC, temperatures could still potentially creep up to the mid 30s. Records show that the highest ever temperature in the UK was recorded on 25 July 2019, when Cambridge Botanic Garden hit 38.7ºC. Before then it was 38.5ºC, which was recorded at Faversham in Kent in August 2003.

As a result of the rising temperatures, a heat health alert has been triggered for the UK. In areas such as the southeast, the heat health alert has been raised to Level 3 for next week as temperatures are expected to reach the low 30s.

The Met Office have also confirmed there is a very high probability that temperatures in the southeastern and eastern areas of the UK could reach at least 30ºC throughout the week.

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