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Topics: Earth, NASA, Science, Space, Technology
Niamh Shackleton
Topics: Earth, NASA, Science, Space, Technology
The chances of a city-destroying asteroid hitting Earth is very quickly increasing.
The huge asteroid could collide with Earth in seven years' time and, should it do so, it will have devastating effects on our planet.
While many have come to know the space object in question as the 'city-destroyer', its official name is 2024 YR4.
The likelihood of the asteroid, was initially said to be 1.2 percent in 2032. However, in a worrying update, this has now more than doubled.
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It's estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet (40 - 90 meters) wide, says NASA, which works out to be similar to the width of a soccer field.
While NASA recently increased the chances of it colliding with Earth to 2.6 percent, it's now been hiked even higher.
As of today (February 19), the likelihood of YR4 smashing into our plant is 3.1 percent.
While concerning, in terms of the NASA's Torino Scale, YR4 has been scored a 3. This means that it's in the 'meriting attention by astronomers' category.
5 - 7 on the Scale means an asteroid is 'threatening', with 8 - 10 being 'certain collision'.
The NASA website says of items in category 3: "A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction.
"Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away."
It should be noted, however, that YR4 was once at 0 on the Scale, but has been in category 3 as of yesterday (February 18).
With it's increased percentage in mind, YR4 is now the biggest threat the Earth has faced in NASA's history — a title previously held by the infamous 'God of Chaos' asteroid.
There was concern the space object could collide with Earth in 2029 and for a time there was around a 2.7 percent chance it would hit us, though NASA has since said it has been 'ruled out' as a risk.
While the update on YR4 might be quite daunting, many will be pleased to know that there's still a 96.9 percent chance that the 'city-destroyer' will not hit Earth.
As our lives are not in immediate danger, one scientist said YR4 is 'exciting'.
"I find 2024 YT4 to be extremely exciting," said Bryce Bolin, a NASA Goddard Space Flight Center astronomer.
"Not only because of its notoriety but for the scientific potential of studying such a small asteroid in high detail."
"Only a few asteroids have been studied like this," he added.